Original title: “China Core” under the epidemic: Confused demand prospects Production ramp-up plan delayed for the second quarter or a critical moment of “change”
The rapid spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in the world has plunged the semiconductor industry chain that has risen sharply in the early stage. Because downstream demand is expected to decline sharply, many market participants expect that the upstream semiconductor will also be greatly affected.
As of the close of the evening of April 1, the Shenwan Semiconductor Index has fallen by 21.45% since March. At present, the only chip design leader in the first quarter of 2020, St. Bang shares, although the Q1 performance forecast may increase by 70% to 100% year-on-year, but it has not resisted the investor ’s panic, and fell 1.8% on April 1.
According to IDC’s latest forecast data for March, the possibility that the global semiconductor industry’s revenue will shrink significantly in 2020 is close to 80%, instead of the 2% increase expected previously.
“In the short term, the impact is not significant. Taking the mobile phone industry chain as an example, many customers are still making up for the shortfall in the operating rate in February, and there is no large-scale order cutting. However, if we look forward to the second quarter, pressure on the demand side It will be relatively large. Recently, mobile phone sales in Europe and India in overseas markets have dropped significantly. We understand that Media Markt, Europe ’s largest consumer electronics offline chain, will be closed in mid-March. If the epidemic continues for a long time, this will definitely be Will affect the performance of terminal sales. “On April 1, Fang Jing, chief analyst of Cinda Securities’ electronics industry, pointed out in an interview.
First quarter results are still optimistic
In recent years, with the epidemic raging around the world, investors have generally panic about the semiconductor industry, especially listed companies with a relatively high overseas business.
According to the data compiled by Guosen Securities, the semiconductor industry’s overseas business revenue in 2018 was 50.2 billion yuan, accounting for 44.48% of the semiconductor industry’s total revenue of 113 billion yuan, accounting for a relatively high proportion. There are about 9 overseas business revenues of more than 1 billion. Among them, Changdian Technology’s overseas revenues reached 19.806 billion yuan in 2018, and Tongfu Microelectronics’ revenues in 2018 and 2019 were 6.220 billion yuan and 6.663 billion yuan, respectively. Among the 50 semiconductor companies, about 19 overseas revenues account for more than 30%, and about 15 overseas revenues account for more than 50%. Among them, Zhaoyi Innovation’s overseas revenue accounted for 86.73% and 82.39% in 2018 and 2019 respectively, the former accounted for 86.41% and 81.27% in 2018 and 2019 respectively; the latter Changdian Technology Overseas in 2018 Revenue accounted for 79.25%.
Among them, Changdian Technology has greatly increased its overseas business after the acquisition of Xingke Jinpeng. According to Changdian Technology on the interactive platform, the company has customers at home and abroad. 85% of the world ’s top 20 semiconductor companies are corporate customers, and the company has signed confidentiality agreements with major customers.
On April 1, 21st Century Business Herald reporters respectively called Changdian Technology and Tongfu Microelectronics Securities Department to inquire about the “impact of the spread of overseas epidemics on the overseas business of listed companies.” It mainly depends on the changes in the epidemic situation and whether it can be prevented and controlled. “The difficulties faced by everyone in the industry chain are the same, not just our company.”
However, some market participants believe that domestic packaging and testing vendors may benefit from the crisis in the short term.
“Southeast Asia is an important base for the global packaging and testing industry. Affected by the epidemic, many Southeast Asian countries have segregated blockades, and the packaging and testing capacity has tightened. Therefore, many packaging and testing capacity will be transferred to domestic production. For the test leader, it is good. “Fang Jing said.